Look into the future

[JimAuburn]

Look into the future five or ten years and tell us which realities of digital camera ownership today will seem like distant memories from that vantage point...

[jfrancho]

Memory cards. Proprietary RAW formats. JPEG. Burst rate and depth. 12 bit/channel files. There's more, but that's what I came up with quickly.

EDIT: I answered too fast! I chose 'Other' for the poll, and the above are the other things

[PavelOlavich]

In 10 years, DSLR's will become commodities. Shop for price and for the system you have your $$ tied into (lenses/flashes). As for camera features and image quality, they'll all be the same, more or less....just like 1995 with film bodies.

In 10 years I predict all brands will provide the same very clean noise-free images, auto-sensor cleaning, 2,000+ shots per battery charge, the use of huge and cheap memory cards, and the price of a top of the line pro body will be $2,000 in today's dollars, 2 more stops of Dynamic Range, and no less then 24mp....competition will be fierce! Just a guess.....

[cyclohexane]

Memory issues will be the first to go. Flash memory drops price in landslides.

Needing to carry extra batteries is already getting there. The EN-EL4 lasts about a week of heavy shooting, and its replacement the EN-EL4A does a week and a half. With any luck, the new battery Canon is putting out with the Mk.III will be as good or better. I didn't check this one, as I already can go without extra batteries (even though I always carry a spare in case of freak accident)

I don't see upgrading ending any time soon... someone will find a way to convince people that they still need to buy the latest and greatest.

[Mr. Pickles]

I took the Other route. Not because I know of one. because I don't think people will ever get away from these items in the list. batteries will get better, but not to where they last after 1000 images, once bigger sensors and anti-dust things, etc. are added.

Memory will continue to go up, but so will sensor size and thus file size. You'll never have a card that can hold as many pics as you would take in RAW on a vacation trip or high shoot. The only hope there is wireless transfer.

ISO noise and dynamic range are here to stay. Just because of techies. They will never be satisfied. Noise is already blown way out of proportion to me when compared to film.

Canon will always have a higher speed "Pro camera". Others may be nearly as fast, but as long as one camera has something faster or better, somebody gonna want it.

[Kevin Barrett]

The commodization of the DSLR as we know it has already begun. Within 5 years we will have access to a single tool for capturing both high-quality stills and HD video. This hybridization will no longer be seen as a 'cool' feature, it will be expected.

In camera processing will advance further to reduce the need for the post-processing of everyday shots. Post processing will not go away, but will become more extensible.

Image stabilization as we know it today, will be a given. Much like AF is an expected 'feature' today. We will see more GPS functionality integrated into camera bodies as a standard feature.

Flash memory will also develop considerably, we may very well see the hard-disk drive go by the wayside. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 'permanent' flash memory system emerge into systems. Look for further high-speed Wifi options as well, eliminating the need to physically connect to peripherals.

I foresee a component camera becoming a reality within 10 years. The ability to interchange processors, sensors and even lensmounts makes too much sense. It is unlikely that the traditional photographic companies will be the first to introduce this.
The big boys will continue to offer their own cameras on the high-end, but will be 'forced' by the enthusiast market to make certain individual components available for resale. The next wave will be the DIY open source imaging tool.

Yes, I'll take that Canon sensor there along with that Nikon AF subsystem and please wrap that up in an Olympus case please. Thank you!

Within 10 years GE will acquire either Pentax, or Olympus or both and will be among the BIG three in imaging.

High quality lenses will become even more accessible to the 'everyday' photographer. Competitive pressures, technology innovations and market pressure will drive the prices down even further.

Ok, now back to reality....

[jazzology]

Give the rate of improvement in sensors... I would not be surprised to see dynamic range capabilities in excess of the human eye... exsposure latitude and it's characteristics with different film stocks is IMO digital's biggest downside.

Jazz

[aam1234]

Mr.P, I did ~1,000 photos in about an hour's span with the 20D, using an IS lens no less (100-400).


I like Kevin's thinking.

[Rense]

I think the Megapixelwar will end not because of the sensors but because the quality of lenses cannot keep up. In a ten years from now there will be a total rethinking of the stop concept: Av,Tv,ISO will not be discrete but continous values. Batteries won't be a problem: organic replacements or quickloaders will be every where always available. CF cards etc. won't be needed: the image will be where you want it immediately.

All of this will happen unless a gigantic magnetic storm will throw us back to the old days of film ...

[Mr. Pickles]

Originally Posted by aam1234

Mr.P, I did ~1,000 photos in about an hour's span with the 20D, using an IS lens no less (100-400).

I'm not gonna say I don't believe you, but I do find it hard to believe that you fired off a picture (on average) every 3.6 seconds for an hour.

And your 20D does not have a bigger sensor, that was mentioned, which I assume requires more "juice", and not all cameras could get 1000 pics form the battery, and the 20D probably doesn't do that consistently either.

[aam1234]

I'm surprised that you are surprised with that number, Mr.P. Isn't it normal with other cameras too (with a fresh battery).

Btw, there was plenty of "juice" when it got dark. And yes, I used FPS (?) more than a few times, was shooting flying birds.

Believe it or not, I didn't get a single decent photo

[cyclohexane]

I'm surprised that you are surprised with that number, Mr.P. Isn't it normal with other cameras too (with a fresh battery).

No.

With a D1-series camera, you'll often be lucky to get 300-500 shots with a fresh battery. The original Canon 1D also isn't very battery friendly. Granted, these aren't current generation cameras, but they're still in daily use.

Also, some cameras run significantly different electronic sequences when shooting RAW versus JPEG. For example, I've gotten less than half the amount of shots shooting RAW on a D200 versus shooting JPEGs.

Continuous shooting at high speeds actually doesn't contribute as much to the drain as you think. For one thing, you're simply capturing a bunch of images in one go. Autofocus and IS/VR are bigger drains on battery power.

I do find it hard to believe that you fired off a picture (on average) every 3.6 seconds for an hour.

I did it once at a fast moving event quite some time ago, but that was early on and I wanted to see how my camera held-up. Switching to a microdrive late in the event slowed down my shooting considerably. Also, editing it afterwards was no fun... never again, LOL

[aam1234]

Yes, I was shooting jpeg, but was using the 100-400 IS too (intermittently though).

[aam1234]

To Mr.P,

Here are a few from that day.

[brian.austin]

Originally Posted by cyclohexane

No.

I agree. I have a 20D and, soon after purchase, shot 1800 pics over a three day weekend. Battery life was about 500-600 shots per charge with 70-200/2.8L IS and JPG at its finest resolution. Minimal chimping during that time, too.

[aam1234]

Only 600. That's low

[Mr. Pickles]

Originally Posted by aam1234

Only 600. That's low

NO it isn't. You got 1000. Good for you. Canon says you "should" get 1000 from a fresh battery. BUT, that is no flash use, no LCD use, no chimping, no extra nothing.

Also, the BP-511 battery does not have as much life as the BP-511a battery. And temperature will also have a nice and profound effect on the capacity of the battery. I would also imagine that JPG vs RAW could be a big difference maker too. Image size/quality as well.

If a company say their battery can do 1000 images, then you should expect to get less than that. Just because you got 1000, doesn't mean that someone who got 600 is being cheated or something.

[badpickev]

one of those items i have now

[jfrancho]

Originally Posted by badpickev

one of those items i have now

But it's still "current state" for you. If you could have more, you'd take it right?

[badpickev]

here is where i think we will be in the next 10 years. crop factor/ff will be like iso, change it per shot. af will be so much faster and more accurate than the human eye. white balance will never need to be set. batteries will have a solar panel that is worn on the back, for real time charging. fps will be per type of camera 3-5 for consumer, 4-8 pro-sumer, and uber fast for pros.

to explain my crop statement. i believe that all cameras will have the ability to change the crop factor from ff to say 3x. i also think some will go to .75 crop for the absolute sweet spot on the lens. yes vignetting will occur, but it will be a great shot once cropped out.

as for DR, it will only be the fuji folks that do not need it.