[Songman45]

We talk about film sometime as if it existed in its latest incarnation from the begininning of time. Improvements were made to that media and its processing without end. I remember the hurdle of 400 speed fine grain color print film. You know that wide dynamic range of film we so praise when comparing it to digital? It took a long time to refine.

We finally have a DSLR that behaves like a "real" camera. It hasnt been so long ago that an affordable digital camera with a shutter reaction close to that of a 35mm didn't exist. I remember having to anticipate a moving subject and even then I'd miss fast action shots. Its come to image quality now. More pixels alone doesn't necessarily mean a better image. I still believe there will be higher count sensors and improved rear screens for a while.

I predict advances will be made to increase the dynamic range. The high ISO/Low Noise issue is becoming a thing of the past. Now what needs to happen is some sort of layering (just like HDR) where part of the pixels will handle shadow, part midtone, part highlight. Will this happen in a year or two? Who knows. Is there a masterplan for easing the features into offerings coupled with engineered obsolescence? Maybe. Will we ever buy a digital camera and expect it to serve us 20 or 30 years like the old faithful K100, F1 or A1? I do not know.

I know that American automobiles (driven here, not necessarily made here) used to be headed for the bone yard at 100,000 miles. The mid seventies was a disaster for autos. That hump seems to have been crossed. We've come a long way with the addition of technology in cars. They perform better (remember altitude changes playing havoc with carburators?) are more reliable and run better longer than 30 years ago. Back then we were coinsidering inexpensive cars as disposable. I see 10 year old cars with over 150,000 miles for sale quite often and the prices aren't exactly junk prices either.

So with digital cameras I think the same evolution will play out. We'll eventually get to the point where improvements will be introduced much less frequently and the longivity will increasse. And thankfully your 3 yr old camera will not totally devalued.

Optimistically yours
Steve