We can only hope that the 20 year estimates are right. It's not like we've ever made mistakes before (subprime won't ever be a problem. 640K of memory is all we'll ever need. Disco will never die.)
But besides the technical issues, economics are often far more important than any technical developments. You might want to find your local Circuit City (if it's still open). There's liable to be a bunch of
good deals there over the next couple of weeks.